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Calibration-Free Early Stopping for Chain-of-Thought Reasoning via E-processes

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arXiv:2610.25212v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reasoning large language models (LLMs) benefit from test-time scaling, motivating adaptive policies that spend tokens when they help and stop early otherwise. Existing rules halt when a confidence or stability signal crosses a threshold, but such thresholds rarely transfer across models and datasets, and validation-calibrated rules lose their guarantee under shifts in test-time horizon or signal dynamics. We reframe adaptive stopping as sequential evidence accumulation along the reasoning trajectory rather than threshold calibration on held-out data. Our framework runs two e-processes on a shared per-chunk signal: a commit stream tracks the signal's position relative to its slow trend, and an abstain stream tracks its signed velocity, making the two anti-correlated by construction. Under signal-level nulls on the per-chunk increments, Ville's inequality yields an anytime-valid signal-level false-alarm bound at user-specified significance levels, with no held-out calibration. Across various model--dataset combinations, the framework matches or exceeds calibration-based stopping on the token--accuracy Pareto front using zero calibration data, and the same significance level transfers unchanged across cells where calibration becomes infeasible.

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采集于 2026/10/20 21:06:32(北京时间)。 arXiv 日期为本次公告时间,论文初次投稿日期请查看原文版本记录。

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